False breaks at the London open
Why the first pierce of the overnight range so often fails — and what confirmation looks like instead.
The London cash open regularly runs stops above the Asian range. Price pierces, traders shout “break,” and the candle closes back inside. That is not a structure break; it is a probe.
Before calling a break, wait for the session’s character to settle. Prefer a close beyond the overnight swing on your working timeframe, then look for acceptance — a hold outside, or a retest that fails to reclaim the level with conviction. If the pierce happens into thin early volume and snaps back within minutes, treat it as unfinished business rather than a new trend.
Workshop attendees often bring exactly these charts. Relabelling them from “break” to “probe” is half the evening’s work.